US Dollar: What to Expect in December

US Dollar: What to Expect in December

We are entering the last trading month of the year which usually draws out a lot of unique factors that can affect the demand for US dollars. A few weeks ago, we published a report on the seasonality of the US dollar and we found that based on 20 years of data, the dollar has a greater tendency to fall in the month of December (see report). These risks are higher this year with problems in the financial sector still plaguing the US economy; we could see another month of volatility because options are expiring and traders across different markets are divided on what to expect from the Federal Reserve. The futures market is currently pricing in a 100 percent chance of a quarter point rate cut with 42 percent of that probability in favor of a half point cut; in other words the odds for 50bp over 25bp is quickly nearing fifty-fifty. The dollar however was stronger across the board today and the main reason for that is the expectation that the Fed will come to the market’s rescue. However over the medium term their rescue efforts should be dollar negative and regardless of what the Fed decides to do, half of the market will be surprised. For the US dollar and the currency market this means one thing and that is volatility. Fundamentally, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has set the tone for trading last night when he reiterated the cautionary comments made by Fed Vice Chairman Kohn earlier this week. Bernanke told the markets that the relapse of funding problems has tightened credit conditions significantly and he believes that consumer spending could be particularly vulnerable this month given higher energy prices and mortgage payments, a weak housing market, and unfavorable volatility in equities. Today’s US numbers were mixed. Personal income and personal spending growth declined but the PCE deflator and Chicago PMI accelerated. Ultimately the bad news outweighed the good which is why rate cut expectations continued to rise. The Middle East Council meeting begins on Monday read our special report on what this could entail for the US dollar.